By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R56.80. We recommend a stop-loss at R38.50.
Sibanye-Stillwater is a producer of gold and platinum in South Africa (SA) and the United States (US). Sibanye is primarily involved in underground and surface mining and related activities, including extraction and processing. The company has recently branched into the battery supply chain, with several new acquisitions in this space at various stages of completion.
Technically, the breakout from the falling wedge pattern supports a bullish outlook and presents an attractive long opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). The narrowing price range within the wedge suggests that selling pressure is gradually weakening, and the recent move above the upper boundary indicates that buyers may be regaining control. A sustained breakout, particularly if supported by stronger volume and improving momentum indicators, would increase the probability of further upside towards the indicated target range, while a move back below the lower boundary would invalidate the bullish setup.
The price action also appears to be in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Price Cycle, supporting a bullish outlook for the share. This phase is typically characterised by stronger buyers gradually absorbing supply, resulting in stabilising prices and diminishing selling pressure following a period of weakness. A decisive breakout above the accumulation range, supported by stronger volume and improving momentum, would signal a potential transition into the markup phase, where demand begins to outweigh supply and a more sustained upward trend may emerge.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R45.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | SSW |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 124 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 23.68% |
| Return Year-to-date | -25.75% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 43.81 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 85.43 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 31.88 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share is consolidating between long-term support at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and resistance at its 200-day SMA (R51.46), with a decisive break above or below this range likely to determine the next directional move. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 2.44 | 9.06 | 10.61 | 8.77 |
| Growth (%) | 271.48 | 17.00 | -17.34 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 1.31 | 2.90 | 3.64 | 3.37 |
| Growth (%) | 121.07 | 25.66 | -7.34 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 4.83 | 4.13 | 5.00 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 6.61 | 8.31 | 7.70 | |
| Consensus forecasts point to a strong boost in short-term earnings given the recent rally in commodity prices before normalising in later years. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Fundamental view
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPG SA - Buy (Take Profit) | 17.29 | 20.47 | +18.4% | The share reached our profit target and we closed the position. | 17 August 2026 |
| DSY SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 262.16 | 259.21 | -1.1% | The series of green Heikin-Ashi candles and the price remaining above its 200-day SMA support the trade. However, emerging downside momentum is concerning. We maintain our R299.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss at R252.00. | 9 November 2026 |
| HAR SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 268.22 | 315.50 | +17.6% | Price action near the lower boundary of the rising linear regression channel remains attractive, with the share above its 200-day SMA and renewed upside momentum supporting the trade. We maintain our R355.00 target with a trailing stop-loss at R295.00. | 5 October 2026 |
| INL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.08 | 145.00 | +7.3% | The developing ascending triangle, price above the 200-day SMA and positive momentum support the trade. We maintain our R153.00 target with a trailing stop-loss of R141.00. | 21 September 2026 |
| SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.81 | 86.87 | 0.1% | The potential start of Elliott Wave B remains of interest. However, the price is still below its 200-day SMA, while weak upside momentum remains a concern. We maintain our R98.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss of R84.50. | 27 September 2026 |
| NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 142.42 | 150.56 | +5.7% | The trade is approaching its time exit. The developing ascending triangle and price above the 200-day SMA remain constructive, but stalled upside momentum is a concern. We maintain our R160.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss of R147.00. | 17 August 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 919.86 | -5.8% | The bullish pennant and price above the 200-day SMA remains constructive, despite concerning downside momentum. We maintain a R1 202.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss of R877.00. | 4 November 2026 |
