By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $1 040 and a stop-loss of $885.
Costco Wholesale Corporation is a membership warehouse club that sells a variety of food, automotive supplies, toys, hardware, sporting goods, jewellery, electronics, apparel, health, and beauty aids, as well as other goods with a robust international footprint. The company serves customers through its warehouses and e-commerce sites.
Founded in 1983, the company has grown into one of the world's largest retailers, offering a limited selection of bulk, high-quality products from well-known brands and private label, including Kirkland Signature, at attractive prices through tight markup controls and efficient operations.
Technically, the De-trended Price Oscillator (DPO) makes the stock an attractive buying opportunity (see insert on the left on the main chart). The weekly DPO declined deeply into negative territory, indicating that the stock had moved well below its underlying price trend and entered the lower region of its historical cycle. This suggests that a cyclical recovery may be developing.
A projected wave 5 supports the bullish case for the stock (see insert on the right on the main chart). Recent trading activity has remained within the higher 10 million to 50 million-share range, indicating increased market participation as the price begins to stabilise.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram as well as the sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) remains supportive.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | COST |
| Industry | Consumer Staples Distribution |
| Market Capital (USD) | 407.47 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | -0.10% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 7.08% |
| Current Price (USD) | 919.31 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 1 096.50 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 844.06 |
| Financial Year End | August |
| The price remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) indicating that the longer-term trend remains positive and that buyers retain broader technical control. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 20.76 | 22.77 | 24.94 | 27.37 |
| Growth (%) | 9.70 | 9.49 | 9.77 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 5.54 | 5.82 | 6.36 | 8.23 |
| Growth (%) | 4.96 | 9.32 | 29.53 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 40.37 | 36.87 | 33.59 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.90 | |
| The company is expected to maintain strong earnings momentum over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL (Close position) | 162.52 | 137.10 | -15.6% | Stock has hit stop-loss. Exit trade | |
| DOW (Close position) | 30.46 | 27.61 | -9.4% | Stock has hit stop-loss. Exit trade | |
| PEP (Close position) | 140.13 | 129.75 | -7.4% | Stock has hit stop-loss. Exit trade | |
| Gild - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.77 | 151.28 | +11.4% | The AI model's forecast targeted levels remain of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Muted upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $155.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$147.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| TXN - Buy (Continue to hold) | 263.42 | 284.69 | +6.9% | The rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement remains of interest. Remains above the 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $322.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $239.00. | 17 November 2026 |
| VST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 139.03 | 140.83 | +1.3% | The price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $176.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $133.50. | 18 November 2026 |
