Growth likely lifted in 3Q22, but a low-growth environment reflects stronger headwinds.Next Tuesday, Stats SA will release the GDP data for the third quarter. While the high-frequency data for 3Q22 had mixed signals, economic growth likely lifted. Our final estimate is for economic growth of around 0.6% q/q (3.0% y/y), with risks largely posed by the performance of the private tertiary services sectors. Nevertheless, our 0.6% estimate is underpinned by a rebound in the productive sectors of the economy, with manufacturing production growing by 1.9% q/q and mining production growing by 2.2% q/q, despite persistent load-shedding. The transportation sector growth momentum also carried over into the third quarter, underpinned by freight and passenger transportation.
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