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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF (HACK) - BUY

 

Nasdaq, Inc. is a global technology company specialising in exchange services that facilitate the listing, trading, and clearing of various securities across multiple asset classes.

The company's Nasdaq Stock Exchange (based in the US) is one of the largest in the world, with around 4 200 total listings. These include the likes of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, among various other tech giants.

Other product offerings include information and regulatory services, as well as the provision of investment education and analysis.

Technically, the price is above a key support level and is persistently making "higher lows" (see the black trendline on the main chart as well as the insert). This suggests that buyers are actively purchasing the stock at higher prices compared to previous periods. This makes the stock an attractive investment option.

The stock is currently trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA); however, we expect the price to return to its long-run equilibrium of ~$59. This implies that our trade is following a counter-trend strategy.

Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, as well as upwards movement of the On-balance Volume (OBV) indicator, supports our bullish stance.

Share Information

Share code NDAQ US
Industry Financial Services
Market Capital (USD) 27.28 billion
One year total return 9.21%
Return year-to-date -9.06%
Current price(USD) 55.58
52 weeek high(USD) 69.22
52 week low(USD) 48.06
Financial year end December
Closing paragraph The stock has performed well over the past year but has come under pressure in recent months amid market uncertainty.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) 2.66 2.72 2.89 3.13
Growth (%) 2.14 6.51 8.05
Dividend Per Share (GBP) 0.78 0.86 0.92 1.00
Growth (%) - 9.62 7.84 8.03
Forward PE (times) 20.46 19.21 17.77
Forward Dividend Yield (%) - 1.54 1.66 1.79
Closing paragraph Bottom-line growth is expected to recover steadily over the medium-term.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel of our chart depicts the bullish trend period for the stock and reveals sustained upward pressure in the price over recent years. This indicates improved investor sentiment and confidence in the stock. The extended bullish trend is supported by higher trading volumes - another positive indicator.
  • Our entry range is between $54 and $56 - a drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, providing reason to negate the idea.
  • Our target price is $60 (~9% upside from current levels).
  • Forward calculations of the RSI suggest that the stock will be in overbought territory at around $85, characterising our profit target as realistic.
  • A current RSI reading of 44 compared to readings of 30 for oversold territory and 70 for overbought territory, leaves some room for further upside.
  • The proposed time to exit is early-September 2023, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter horizon, depending on price behaviour.
  • A drop below $52 (~6% downside from current levels) will be a major concern, and as such is recommended as a stop-loss.
  • We suggest a low at-risk allocation for this trade.

Fundamental view:

  • Nasdaq, Inc. operates across four main businesses.
  • Market Services (~60% of revenue) includes the exchanges upon which trading occurs.
  • Investment Intelligence (~20% of revenue) contains the company's Market Data, Index, and Analytics businesses.
  • Corporate Platforms (~10% of revenue) houses Listing Services as well as the Investor Relations & ESG Service businesses.
  • Market Technology (~10% of revenue) is a global technology solutions provider and a partner to various other exchanges, clearing organisations, banks, and regulators.
  • In 1Q23, revenue grew 5% on an organic basis - below the company's medium-term goal and pointing to a slowdown against a very challenging and uncertain market environment. Still, revenue beat consensus by about 1%, while adjusted earnings per share was also better than expected with a slight improvement in profits against an anticipated decline.
  • Looking ahead, further investment into technology and the development of new products will drive a recovery in recurring revenue. Support for growth can also be found from certain bolt-on acquisitions as well as the expansion of servicing products.
  • For the year, growth is not expected to be particularly exciting but a steady revenue and earnings profile over time is likely to capture investor interest.
  • Some of our concerns include natural cyclicality in sales (volumes), which will remain a key issue in the near term. In the exchange business, significant pressure is being felt from a slowdown in IPOs which usually takes place when the economy is under pressure. Operationally, margin improvements for the business are expected to remain limited due to increased cost pressures related to the tech and analytics platforms.

Share Name and position NCLH - Buy (Continue to hold) STZ - Buy (Continue to hold) HACK - Buy (Continue to hold)
Entry 14.47 228.16 47.58
Current 15.51 242.70 49.07
Movement 7.2% 6.4% 3.1%
Summary text The stock is experiencing limited volatility and remains within a narrow trading range. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level could serve as a significant support level. Upward momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $18 with a trailing stop-loss of $14. Exit the position on 19 July 2023
A bullish megaphone pattern remains of interest. The stock is just above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $252 with a trailing stop-loss of $233. Exit the position on 21 June 2023.
The price remains above key support levels. The stock is trading above its 200-day simple moving average, with upside price momentum supporting the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $55 with a trailing stop-loss of $47.10. Exit the position around 4 August 2023

Share Name and position COST - Buy (Continue to hold) HLMN - Buy (Continue to hold) VXF - Buy (Continue to hold)
Entry 501.27 8.01 139.26
Current 512.60 8.11 139.29
Movement 2.3% 1.2% 0%
Summary text We continue to observe a confluence of technical indicators that aligns with the bullish trend. The share is trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports a bullish bias.

Our profit target is $560, with a trailing stop-loss of $490. Exit the position around 7 July 2023.
The price continues to display repetitive cycles in sequences. The stock is testing its 200-day simple moving average, which is also its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Fading downside momentum supports the trade.

Our profit target is $10 with a trailing stop-loss at $7.50. Exit the position on 6 October 2023
An incomplete symmetrical triangle pattern is of interest. The ETF is testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $153 with a stop-loss at $134. Exit the position on 2 November 2023

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