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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: MetLife Inc. (MET US) - BUY

 

Peet Serfontein, Khumbulani Kunene

MetLife, Inc.is one of the largest insurance and financial services companies in the United States (US). It provides life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking, and other financial services to individuals, as well as group insurance. The company has operations throughout the US and in Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacifi

Headquartered in New York, the company serves ~90 million customers in over 40 countries and is particularly well-known for its strong presence in group benefits for employers. MET is also one of the largest institutional investors in the US with a general account portfolio invested primarily in fixed-income securities and mortgage loans, as well as real estate, real estate joint ventures, other limited partnerships and equity securities

Technically, a price in a developing rising wedge pattern presents a promising investment opportunity (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart as well as the one to five notation). The occurrence of this pattern at the start of the Elliott Wave leg five can support a bullish case

Bullish Bollinger Band buy signals are also supportive (see the insert on the main chart). These buy signals typically occur when the price rebounds from the lower Bollinger Band or crosses above the simple moving average (SMA), suggesting that the stock is regaining upward momentum after a short-term correctio

The start of upside price momentum per the MACD histogram, as well as the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code MET US
Industry Insurance
Market Capital (USD) 53.2 billion
One Year Total Return 16.10%
Return Year-to-Date -1.78%
Current Price (USD) 79.32
52 Week High (USD) 89.05
52 Week Low (USD) 65.21
Financial Year End December
The price is sandwiched between its 200-week and 200-day SMAs. The stock has achieved good double-digit growth this year.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 8.15 9.15 10.33 11.40
Growth (%) 12.27 12.85 10.42
Dividend Per Share (USD) 2.16 2.28 2.38 2.52
Growth (%) 5.57 4.40 6.23
Forward PE (times) 8.22 7.36 6.96
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 2.87 2.99 3.18
Medium-term growth prospects remain positive with momentum expected to improve over the next few financial periods.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows the appearance of the Three Outside Up Japanese candlestick pattern, denoted by a reading of one. This pattern can support a bull case as it signals a strong reversal from a prior downtrend or consolidation phase. This formation begins with a bearish candle, followed by a larger bullish second candle that fully engulfs the first, and a third candle that closes higher than the second (see the insert). This reflects a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. An increase in volume adds credibility to the reversal scenario.
    • Our recommended entry range is $76.00 to $82.00, or as close as possible to $79.32 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $89.00, representing ~12.2% upside from current levels
    • According to forward calculations of Relative Strength Index indicator, the stock will be overbought at $95.00, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is towards end of August 2025, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $74.00, or 6.7% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate fluctuations in price and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $82.00.

Fundamental view

    • MetLife operates primarily through seven segments, namely:
    • Group Benefits (~36% of revenue), which offers a broad range of products to corporations and their respective employees. These products include term, variable and universal life insurance, dental, group and individual disability, vision and accident and health insurance
    • Retirement and Income Solutions (~24% of revenue) offers a broad range of life and annuity-based insurance and investment products to corporations.
    • MetLife Holdings (~10% of revenue) consists of managing public and private assets including Fixed Income, Real Estate and Private Capital.
    • Corporate and Other (~1% of revenue) includes excess capital, debt servicing costs and certain run-off businesses and expenses not allocated to other segments.
    • Asia (~15% of revenue). The company does business in about nine countries in Asia, with its largest operations in Japan.
    • Latin America (~10% of revenue) business has operations in Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Argentina
    • EMEA (~4% of revenue) includes operations in the UK, France and the Gulf region.
    • The company's strategic partners include Emirates NBD and it has collaborated with IMB and FedEx to execute on transactions in the pension risk transfer (PRT) market.
    • MET's client base spans across the globe, with its biggest client base being 90 of the top 100 Fortune 500 companies in the US as well as non-profit organisations.
    • The company is in the process of acquiring global asset manager, PineBridge Investments, which will enable it to broaden its product offerings to a wider range of clients. The recent acquisition of Raven Capital Management has bolstered the company's asset under management and has enhanced its private credit platform.
    • In recent 1Q25 results, revenue grew 11% to $18 billion, driven by strong volumes growth on the back of higher demand. Robust Real Estate performance, increased fees and higher investment income added further support to the top-line, with gains capped by weakness in Private Equity
    • Management remains focused on maximising shareholder value and has committed to value creation, which is evident in the recent launch of the New Frontier strategy that aims to improve profit growth, reduce expenses and increase free cash flow. This strategy focusses on four key areas of opportunity: extending leadership in group benefits, capitalising on a unique retirement platform, accelerating growth in asset management, and expanding in high-growth international markets.
    • From a risk perspective, MetLife remains exposed to insurance and underwriting risks, particularly in cases of unexpected changes in death rates due to health shocks such as Covid-19. Market fluctuations can be detrimental to the company's performance

Share Name and Position PANW US - BUY
(Continue to hold)
CTAS - BUY
(Continue to hold)
LULU - BUY
(Continue to hold)
Entry 173.55 205.84 310.61
Current 197.12 227.58 334.91
Movement +13.6% +10.6% +7.8%
A recent trough in the stock's price continues to attract attention. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $228.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $172.00. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025.
A bullish pennant pattern continues to attract attention. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Strong upside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $213.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $201.00. Exit the trade by 25 June 2025.
A price in a developing Megaphone pattern remains of interest. Crossed above its 200-day SMA. The start of upside price momentum is supportive

Our profit target remains at $388.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $303.00. Exit the trade by 13 August 2025.

Share Name and Position SW US - BUY
(Continue to hold)
ABBV US - BUY
(Continue to hold)
MSI US - BUY
(Continue to hold)
Entry 39.56 185.72 422.93
Current 42.18 187.25 422.21
Movement +6.6% +0.8% -0.2%
A trough in the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $49.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $39.00. Exit the trade around 20 August 2025.
A price in an upward sloping inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains just below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $216.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $175.00. Exit the trade around 20 August 2025.
A price at the start of wave 5 out of the Elliott wave price action remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $476.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $402.00. Exit the trade around 13 August 2025.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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