By Peet Serfontein & Sithembile Bopela
STXFIN is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) incorporated in South Africa. It is an index tracker portfolio and provides investors with the price return of the FTSE/JSE Financial 15 Index. It also pays out, on a quarterly basis, dividends received from companies comprising the index.
The index provides investors with targeted exposure to South Africa's largest banks, insurance firms and other major financial institutions. Over the past year, STXFIN has delivered a strong total return of ~28%.
Technically, the price is above major support, which makes for an attractive investment option (see the black support trendline on the main chart). The formation of higher highs and higher lows is representative of a bullish trend.
Price velocity supports the bullish case (see the insert on the main chart), with a particularly sharp spike in upward momentum occurring around early 2025. This surge in velocity suggests a strong and decisive shift in investor sentiment, indicating aggressive buying activity and renewed confidence in the sector.
Upward momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator and a recent sideways trajectory in the On-balance volume (OBV) indicator, supports the trade idea.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R22.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | STXFIN |
| Industry | ETF |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 1.73 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 33.39% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 5.29% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 21.71 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 22.06 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 16.82 |
| Financial Year End | - |
| The ETF made good progress over the past year and several technical indicators are guiding for upside potential. It also remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). | |
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental considerations
| Share Name and Position | MRP - Time exit (Close the position) |
QLT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
ABG - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 219.84 | 35.27 | 171.50 |
| Current | 242.99 | 38.14 | 178.30 |
| Movement | +10.5% | +8.1% | +4.0% |
| The stock has reached our time exit date and we have closed the trade. |
The price action is at the start of Wave five of the Elliott Wave theory which remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is at R41, with a trailing stop-loss at R35. Exit the trade on 14 July 2025. |
A favourable peer comparison remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is at R200, with a trailing stop-loss at R162.50. Exit the trade on 14 July 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | NTC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
GRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
BVT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 14.14 | 13.22 | 239.73 |
| Current | 14.54 | 13.53 | 244.72 |
| Movement | +2.8% | +2.3% | +2.1% |
|
A double-bottom pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum has halted, which is a concern.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.70. Exit the trade on 21 July 2025. |
The share is trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12. Exit the trade on 17 November 2025. |
An inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average and the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Upside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is at R274, with a trailing stop-loss at R226. Exit the trade on 1 September 2025. |
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