By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
Sanlam is a leading financial services group based in South Africa. The company specialises in insurance, financial planning, retirement, trust, wills, short-term insurance, asset and risk management, capital market activities, investment, and wealth management. The company owns 62.3% of listed short-term insurer, Santam.
Sanlam has been operating for more than 100 years with a footprint spanning over 40 countries. The group is highly regarded from a qualitative perspective and is well-diversified from a geographic and product standpoint. Sanlam boasts a strong balance sheet with more than adequate reserves.
Technically, Sanlam's historical tendency to deliver strong follow-through after recovery years, combined with an improving return profile in 2025, suggests a favourable outlook for continued upside in 2026 (see the insert on the main chart). Historically, similar setups have produced above-average returns in the 10% to 25% range, with occasional surges to 30% to 40% when momentum strengthens. The current cycle mirrors past periods where multi-year weakness was followed by a solid rebound, reinforcing a constructive view for 2026.
The share appears to be in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Price Cycle, marked by stabilising price action, moderating volatility, and signs of early strength such as higher lows and improved volume. This stage typically precedes a markup phase, where the price breaks out as demand outweighs supply, making it a constructive setup for trend development.
A strongly rising Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reinforces the bullish case. As the gap between the MACD line and its signal line widens, it indicates buyers are gaining control and price advances are becoming more forceful. This pattern often appears early in a bullish phase, confirming improving sentiment and increasing the likelihood of continued appreciation if broader conditions remain supportive.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | SLM |
| Industry | Insurance |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 201.7 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 14.18% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 15.98% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 95.27 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 97.26 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 66.61 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price is above its 200-week and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of R86.27. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 10.71 | 9.21 | 9.67 | 10.63 |
| Growth (%) | -13.95 | 4.97 | 9.96 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 4.45 | 4.74 | 5.13 | 5.40 |
| Growth (%) | 6.40 | 8.43 | 5.12 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 10.34 | 9.85 | 8.96 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.97 | 5.39 | 5.66 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive, with an improvement in momentum expected over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | HAR SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
INL SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
OUT SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 298.99 | 130.41 | 73.75 |
| Current Price | 299.60 | 132.75 | 72.95 |
| Movement | +0.2% | +1.8% | -1.1% |
| Comment | The impulsive wave-b structure remains notable, with the price holding above the 200-day average. Emerging downside momentum is a concern. The profit target stays at R374.00, supported by a stop-loss at R255.00. | Price action near the lower 2-standard-deviation band of the linear regression channel remains noteworthy, with the price action holding above its 200-day average. Softening downside momentum supports the strategy. The profit target stays at R149.00, with a trailing stop at R125.50. | A shift to consecutive bullish swings is notable as the price tests the 200-day average. Easing downside momentum supports the strategy. The profit target remains R87.00, with a stop-loss at R69.00. |
| Time to exit | 12 January 2026 | 30 January 2026 | 11 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | CLS SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VOD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ANH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 365.58 | 132.90 | 1 031.56 |
| Current Price | 358.83 | 139.39 | 1 091.35 |
| Movement | -1.8% | +4.9% | +5.8% |
| Comment | An emerging Elliott Wave one structure is notable as the price tests the 200-day average. Downside momentum remains a concern. The profit target is R413.00, with a stop at R347.00. | A low-volatility phase suggesting stability and accumulation is notable, with the price holding above the 200-day average. Softening downside momentum supports the strategy. The profit target is R157.00, with a trailing stop at R130.00. | The stock is trading ex-dividend on 17 November. The price action is holding within a rising linear regression channel, despite trading below the 200-day average, making this a counter-trend setup. Softening downside momentum supports the idea. Our profit target is R1 255.00, with a trailing stop at R1 002.00. |
| Time to exit | 18 March 2026 | 11 February 2026 | 17 February 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | SHP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 278.33 |
| Current Price | 278.34 |
| Movement | +0.0% |
| Comment | Price movement within a well-defined rising channel remains notable as it tests its 200-day average. Softening upside momentum is a concern. The profit target is maintained at R312.00, with a stop at R265.00. |
| Time to exit | 9 December 2025 |
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