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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: Insulet Corporation (PODD US) - BUY

 

Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

We enter a long position with a target price of $400.00 and a stop-loss of $310.00.

Insulet Corporation is a medical device company dedicated to simplifying life for people living with diabetes through the use of its Omnipod technologies, a tubeless insulin delivery device.

Insulet has established a strong position in the wearable medical device market by combining automation, convenience, and user-centred design to simplify insulin management.

Technically, a steep, rising channel (see the black parallel trendlines on the main chart) has been in place since May 2024 and reflects a well-established upward trend defined by progressively higher highs and higher lows. As the current price sits near the lower boundary of this channel, it can be interpreted as a bullish support zone because the lower trendline represents an area where buyers have reliably stepped in throughout the life of the pattern.

The insert show AI model based on forward calculated price targets for the stock. The model downloads seven years of price data, cleans and adjusts it for corporate actions and then builds a wide range of technical indicators. The recent price shows a steady recovery, and the model projects a continued upward bias across the one-, three-, six- and 12-month horizons, supporting the bullish stance.

Fading downside price momentum per the MACD histogram and the recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator also supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code PODD
Industry Health Care Equipment & Service
Market Capital (USD) 23.46
One Year Total Return 27.28%
Return Year-to-date 27.73%
Current Price (USD) 333.47
52 Week High (USD) 353.50
52 Week Low (USD) 230.05
Financial Year End December
The price remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and this also supports the bullish case for the stock.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 3.24 4.77 6.12 7.68
Growth (%) 47.13 28.47 25.46
Dividend Per Share (USD) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Growth (%) - - -
Forward PE (times) 69.95 54.45 43.40
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00
The company is set to achieve strong double-digit earnings growth in the medium-term, which is encouraging.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows occurrences of the Three Outside Up Japanese candlestick pattern. A reading of one indicates when such a pattern occurred. This pattern is a classic bullish reversal signal. This three-candle formation begins with a bearish candle, followed by a larger bullish second candle that fully engulfs the first, and a third bullish candle that confirms the reversal with a higher close (see the insert). This reflects a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish.
    • Our recommended entry range is $320.00 to $350.00, or as close as possible to $333.47 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $400.00, representing ~20.0% upside from current levels.
    • According to forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index indicator, the stock will be overbought at $415.00, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is the start of February 2026, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $310, or 7.0% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals, and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate price fluctuations and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $350.00.

Fundamental view:

    • Insulet does not have a single dominant client but instead sells its products to hundreds of thousands of individual patients through pharmacy and durable medical equipment (DME) channels.
    • The US accounts for more than 70% of the total Omnipod revenue. The device is the most prescribed automated insulin delivery system in the US. The international market accounts for less than 30% of sales but is set to grow strongly over the medium term.
    • In 3Q25, revenue surged 30% to $703 million due to solid growth in Omnipod sales on the back of robust demand and a high adoption of the Omnipod 5. The gross margin of 72.2% outpaced consensus. Operating income grew 33.6% to $117.7 million due to the solid top-line performance and gross margin expansion. Finally, adjusted earnings per share grew by 37.8% helped by better profitability and lower debt that resulted in lower financing costs.
    • At the results release, management was optimistic about finishing the year strong and guided for FY25 revenue to grow between 28% and 29% (previous 24% to 27%), with the gross margin set to be above 71% (previously around 71%).
    • This led to strong revenue and earnings upgrades post results.
    • Despite the rise of GLP-1's, diabetes prevalence is expected to continue to grow worldwide, particularly lifestyle-related Type 2 diabetes. Per the International Diabetes Federation, approximately one in nine adults are living with diabetes and this is expected to increase to one in eight by 2050. This means that not only is Omnipod's total addressable market quite large, it is also set to grow long term. Additionally, many existing diabetes sufferers are undiagnosed (~40 per the International Diabetes federation) and better access to healthcare services could help increase the rate of diagnosis over the actual increase in the disease burden.
    • The company is challenged by intense competition in a rapidly evolving market, particularly from established medical device companies (like Medtronic and Tandem) and innovative startups that may develop similar or superior alternatives. Other key risks include the company's single product reliance with the majority of the company's revenue coming from the Omnipod product line.

Share Name and Position COST - Stop loss
(Close the position)
ETN - Buy
(Continue to hold)
KR - Buy
(Continue to hold)
PRU - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 937.50 334.86 66.88 105.04
Current Price 895.08 338.29 67.38 102.64
Movement -4.5% +1.0% +0.7% -2.3%
Comment The stock hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. A price developing wave b of the Elliott Wave price theory remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Downside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target is $395.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $314.00.
A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target is $76.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $63.30.
The bullish momentum signal from the Fisher Transform indicator remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum halted is a concern.

Our profit target is $116.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $100.50.
Time to exit - 28 April 2026 26 January 2026 4 February 2026

Share Name and Position BSX - Buy
(Continue to hold)
OTIS - Buy
(Continue to hold)
ABNB - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 102.50 91.43 122.89
Current Price 99.22 87.70 115.42
Movement -3.2% -4.1% -6.1%
Comment The De-Trended Price Oscillator (DPO) remains of interest. Dipped below its 200-day SMA. The start of downside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target is $118.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $96.30.
The formation of a developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target is $100.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $88.00.
A developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Downside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target is $141.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $116.00.
Time to exit 20 February 2026 17 December 2025 29 December 2025

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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