Peet Serfontein & Pritu Makan
We enter a long position with a target price of $450 and a stop-loss of $365.
Microsoft is one of the world's leading technology companies with products that include the Windows Operating System, the Office 365 Suite, and the Azure cloud service offering. It also owns LinkedIn and has a stake in the gaming industry, via its Xbox platform that now includes the newly acquired Activision Blizzard.
With its extensive portfolio of strategic products and its pivotal role in both digital transformation and cloud adoption, the group is widely viewed as the most essential IT mega vendor. In addition, Microsoft is only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and has already built an AI business that is larger than some of the biggest franchises.
Fading downside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), remains supportive. However, a recent downwards trajectory in the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, is a concern.
Investors can also gain exposure to Microsoft through FNB's JSE listed ETN's, MSETNC (with rand exposure) and MSETNQ (without rand exposure).
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
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Share Information
Share Code
MSFT
Industry
Software & Services
Market Capital (USD)
2888.57 billion
One Year Total Return
-1.49%
Return Year-to-Date
-19.38%
Current Price (USD)
3.89
52 Week High (USD)
5.55
52 Week Low (USD)
3.45
Financial Year End
June
The price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), making for an attractive entry point given the various bullish indicators.
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY25
FY26E
FY27E
FY28E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD)
13.64
16.77
18.99
22.29
Growth (%)
22.92
13.27
17.39
Dividend Per Share (USD)
3.24
3.64
4.03
4.30
Growth (%)
12.28
10.83
6.67
Forward PE (times)
23.20
20.48
17.45
Forward Dividend Yield (%)
0.94
1.04
1.11
The company is on track to deliver solid double-digit earnings growth over the medium term on the back of growing demand for its offerings and focused execution by the sales teams, with ongoing investments supporting long-term growth prospects.
Share Name and Position
Entry
Current Price
Movement
Comment
Time to exit
KO - Take Profit
(Close the position)71.24
80.56
+13.1%
The stock has exceeded our intended price target, and we closed the position.
AZO - Buy
(Continue to hold)3 664.84
3 784.42
+3.3%
The emergence of a developing fifth wave based on Elliott Price Wave theory remains of interest.
Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is
$4 060.00, with a trailing stop at $3 682.
15 April 2026
BLK - Buy
(Continue to hold)1 073.00
1 081.05
+0.8%
The emergence of a developing fifth wave based on Elliott Price Wave theory remains of interest.
Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is
$1 220, with a trailing stop at $1 052.
10 June 2026
