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Trade Ideas

Global trade idea - L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX US) - BUY

 

L3Harris Technologies Inc. is an aerospace and defence technology innovator. The company designs, develops, and manufactures radio communications products and systems, including Single-Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems (SINCGARS). The company also provides advanced defence and commercial technologies across air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains.

The company is one of the top six largest defence contractors in the US. Appetite for defence solutions remains robust, underpinned by strong domestic and international government spend. The company remains well-positioned to benefit from expected offshore growth, post-merger synergies, and its continued focus on operational excellence and innovation.

Technically, the price bounced off some major support making the stock attractive as an investing option (see the black trendline on the main chart). This signifies strong demand for the stock.

The stock remains below its 200-day simple moving average and a cross above will confirm a bullish long-term trend. Hence, the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy.

According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the stock will be overbought at ~$250. This classifies our profit target of $215 as realistic.

We suggest a low capital at-risk allocation to this trade.

Share Information

Share code LHX
Industry Industrials - Networking Technology
Market Capital (USD) 36.77 billion
One year total return -13.13%
Return year-to-date -5.65%
Current price (USD) 194.10
52 weeek high (USD) 255.10
52 week low (USD) 174.55
Financial year end December
Closing paragraph The stock holds a Beta of 0.72, which indicates it is less volatile than the S&P 500 index.

Consensus expectations

(Bloomberg)

FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 12.80 12.27 13.33 14.29
Growth (%) - -4.14 8.64 7.15
Dividend Per Share (USD) 4.48 4.78 5.23 5.63
Growth (%) - 6.58 9.49 7.69
Forward PE (times) - 15.82 14.56 13.59
Forward Dividend Yield (%) - 2.46 2.69 2.90
Closing paragraph Earnings is expected to be constrained over FY23, after which, growth is expected to improve towards higher-single-digits from FY24.

Buy/Sell Rationale

Technical Analysis:

  • The lower panel shows the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. When the MACD line reaches extreme negative values and begins to turn upward, it suggests that the price may have been oversold. The recent crossover, as highlighted by the black arrow, is a bullish signal.
  • The recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator - which uses volume-flow to predict share price movements - is supportive of bullish sentiment.
  • The RSI is in oversold territory when the reading is below 30 and overbought when the reading is above 70. The current reading of the RSI is 50, leaving room for upside price potential.
  • Our entry range is between $190 to $200. Our upside target is set at $215 (+10.8% upside potential).
  • Time to exit is beginning-September 2023. Keep the option open to close the trade if the price reaches our profit target in a shorter time.
  • A price below $185 (-4.7% from current levels) is a major concern for downside potential and is recommended as a stop-loss.
  • Expect moderate volatility in the price.

Long-term fundamental view:

  • The group operates through three segments: Integrated Mission (~41%), Space and Airborne Systems (~36%), and Communication Systems (~24%).
  • Integrated Mission provides multi-mission intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) including fleet management support services, sensor development, modifications, and periodic depot maintenance for ISR and airborne missions. It is also manufactures, integrates, and sustains mission systems for maritime platforms.
  • Space and Airborne Systems is comprised of four business sectors. Space provides space and ground-based solutions in support of intelligence, space exploration, weather, and missile defence missions. Intel & Cyber provides optical networks and advanced wireless solutions for classified intelligence and cyber defence customers. Mission Avionics provides avionic sensors, hardened electronics, data links and antennas supporting fixed wing and rotary platforms. Electronic Warfare provides capabilities for electronic warfare solutions used in airborne and maritime platforms.
  • Communication Systems develops and makes tactical radio communications, SATCOM terminals and night vision systems, and equipment for public safety networks.
  • The group's first quarter results were mixed - the top-line beat consensus expectations while the bottom-line lagged amid inflationary pressures and higher volume of lower-margin domestic ISR revenue.
  • Guidance was left unchanged - a positive takeaway. The benefits of operational improvements, cost controls and other mitigation efforts are expected to be more meaningful in 2H23 as projects ramp up.
  • In terms of risks, the company remains susceptible to general economic headwinds and operational challenges, which could further weigh on sales and earnings. Other headwinds include lower-than-expected defence budgets, softer funding for operations and maintenance (O&M), as well as integration risks of the proposed Aerojet Rocketdyne transaction.

Update on previous Trade Ideas

Share Name and position HLMN - Buy
(Continue to hold)
HACK - Buy
(Continue to hold)
VXF - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 8.01 47.58 139.26
Current 8.95 49.80 145.59
Movement 11.7% 4.7% 5.6%
Summary text The price continues to display repetitive cycles in sequences and remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum further supports the trade

Our profit target is $10 with a trailing stop-loss at $8.35. Exit the position on 6 October 2023.
The price remains above a support level and continues to trade above the 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum has halted, which is a concern.

Our profit target is $55 with a trailing stop-loss of $47.80. Exit the position around 4 August 2023
An incomplete symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. The ETF is trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the bullish trend.

Our profit target is $153 with a trailing stop-loss at $140. Exit the position on 2 November 2023.

Update on previous Trade Ideas

Share Name and position COST - Buy
(Continue to hold)
LIT - Buy
(Continue to hold)
AIG - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 501.27 62.48 56.08
Current 524.20 64.01 55.97
Movement 4.6% 2.4% 2.3%
Summary text We continue to observe a confluence of technical indicators that aligns with a bullish trend. The share is trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports a bullish bias.

Our profit target is $560, with a trailing stop-loss of $502. Exit the position around 7 July 2023.
The stock is trading in a falling wedge pattern within a previous uptrend. The stock is testing its 200-day simple moving average. Upward momentum has halted, which is concerning.

Our profit target is $71 with a trailing stop-loss at $60.60. Exit the position on 30 August 2023.
The stock is currently displaying a broadening top pattern, with the price trending slightly above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports a bullish bias.

Our profit target is $62, with a trailing stop-loss of $52.55. Exit the position around 2 August 2023.

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